This Theme will seek to blend traditional forecasting, with more innovative fore-sighting and comprehensive DER potential assessment to consider not just what trend trends suggest, but also what is possible and desirable.
This will also include: market resource assessment: identifying, quantifying and mapping energy productivity, demand management and DER opportunities (e.g. real-time data on peak demand drivers) and mapping forecast reliability levels and expected unserved energy.
What’s the industry problem?
Much of the forecasting and planning in the energy sector has been based on increasingly outdated supply-side dominated traditions and has often neglected energy productivity, DER and demand-side opportunities and trends.
This has contributed to some expensive forecasting errors and investment decisions costing consumers billions of dollars. Disruptive processes associated with the rise of DER, including solar PV, EVs, and smart energy management, require a new planning approach.
More accurate, flexible and relevant electricity sector fore-sighting and planning processes can improve future investment decisions, allow better market operation, decrease costs and increase reliability
This is particularly relevant to allow rigorous comparisons to optimise between DER and large-scale supply infrastructure investment by utilities and governments around, for example, gas peaking generators, large-scale batteries, pumped hydro storage and interstate transmission.
As for trust building (Theme E1), the benefits of improved fore-sighting and planning processes are difficult to anticipate but could plausibly be worth hundreds of millions of dollars in energy customers savings.