NSW Gas Decarbonisation Roadmap – modelling project

Chief Investigators:

Dr Luke Reedman (CSIRO)

Purpose of project

The NSW Government is committed to provide clarity on the future role of gas and associated infrastructure in the NSW economy. This includes identifying the optimal decarbonisation pathways for each of the household, commercial, industrial and gas-powered generation end user cohorts. 

NSW will consider predicted upcoming gas shortages for the State and how it can most effectively utilise the gas supply available.

The electrification of many sectors has the potential to lower costs and reduce emissions across NSW, by reducing gas demand pressures and switching to more efficient electric alternatives. ​The modelling performed in this project will provide information to inform decision-making in relation to setting electrification targets and the gas decarbonisation roadmap. The NSW Government also want to ensure vulnerable households are supported in the transition to electrified homes. ​

Impact of project

Different pathways will contribute to the NSW Government’s emissions reduction targets and consider the impact on each of the household, commercial, industrial and gas-powered generation (GPG) sectors.  

This project will model multiple scenarios for NSW gas demand and supply to 2050, using detailed multi-sector modelling. Market modelling will be taken into consideration to understand the changing energy supply mix in NSW.

This will assist NSW DCCEEW in understanding the impacts of varying rates of electrification, development and/or viability of alternative fuel sources, and reliability on gas demand, costs to consumers and emissions reduction in different sectors of the NSW economy.

The modelling outputs will be used to identify likely trajectories of NSW gas consumption and electrification across the household, commercial, industrial and gas-powered electricity generation end-user cohorts, with this information to be considered by NSW DCCEEW in developing electrification pathways for NSW.

Project partners – industry and research

CSIRO (Lead), NSW DCCEEW